Max Verstappen has another chance to win the 2022 world championship at this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix.
The Red Bull driver’s winning streak ended in Singapore, where he finished seventh. Closest championship rivals Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez cut into Verstappen’s points lead and fill the top two spots.
But with Leclerc’s 104 points and two more on Perez, Verstappen’s chances of taking the title in Japan are very strong. If he leaves Suzuka with a 112 point lead, he will complete his career.
Here’s how to do it.
Full point competition
The simple scenario for Verstappen this weekend is that if the race goes the distance and he wins and sets the fastest lap, he will be champion no matter where he finishes. But if he doesn’t do both of those things, the title fight could remain wide open.
For example, if Verstappen wins but doesn’t set the fastest lap, Leclerc can retain the championship in second place, even though the Ferrari driver won’t get the fastest lap bonus.
Verstappen could finish as low as sixth and take the championship. In each case, this is where he wants the competitors to finish to win the championship.
Verstappen wins fastest lap – competitors’ finishing positions don’t matter Verstappen wins without fastest lap – Leclerc third or lower, Perez second or lower
Verstappen second fastest lap – Leclerc fifth or lower, Perez fourth or lower Verstappen second fastest lap – Leclerc fifth or lower fastest lap or sixth or lower fastest lap, Perez fourth or lower fastest lap or fifth or lower fastest lap .
Verstappen third fastest lap – Leclerc sixth or lower, Perez fifth or lower Verstappen third fastest lap – Leclerc seventh or lower, Perez sixth or lower
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Verstappen fourth fastest lap – Leclerc eighth or lower, Perez seventh or lower Verstappen fourth without fastest lap – Leclerc eighth or lower without fastest lap or ninth or lower fastest lap, Perez seventh or lower without fastest lap or eighth or lower with fastest lap .
Verstappen fifth fastest lap – Leclerc ninth or lower, Perez eighth or lower Verstappen fifth fastest lap – Leclerc ninth or lower fastest lap or tenth or lower fastest lap, Perez eighth or lower fastest lap or ninth or lower Fast lap.
Verstappen sixth fastest lap – Leclerc tenth or lower, Perez ninth or lower Verstappen sixth without fastest lap – Leclerc 11th or lower without fastest lap or 10th or lower with fastest lap, Perez ninth or lower without fastest lap or 10th or lower on top speed .
Incomplete points competition
Verstappen’s chances of winning the championship decrease if the race doesn’t run to full distance and less than full points.
Given three quarter-points, Verstappen must finish in the top five to win the championship. In this case, if he wins the race and sets the fastest lap, Leclerc can only retain his title by finishing second.
If half-points are given, Verstappen can only win the championship by finishing on the podium. Leclerc needed to complete the podium to take the title with a win.
Verstappen will not win the championship at Suzuka if he is awarded a quarter-point or no points in Japan.
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